Weekend Wonderings: Week 03 (2025)

I wonder if we can have some fun with stats. 

 

1. The current leader of the 2025 NFL season in forced missed tackles at the RB position is… Tony Pollard (RB-Ten) with 20. (Courtesy of ESPN NFL Nation Reporter Turron Davenport). If this Cam Ward (QB) and this offense can improve during the course of the season, Pollard, even with a Tyjae Spears (RB) return, could prove to be to be a mid-to-upper RB2. He is currently 6th in rushing yards.  He just hasn’t been able to find the endzone. 

 

2. The current leader in rushing success rate (gains of at least 40% of yards required on 1st down, 60% of yards required on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd or 4th down—courtesy of pro-football-reference.com) is… Patrick Mahomes (QB-KC) with 84.6%.  Mahomes has come to play this season.  And as expected, the RB with highest rushing success rate is, of course,… Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB-Was). I am VERY curious to see how Croskey-Merritt will be used in Week 03. His ceiling will probably be capped unless he is incorporated more into the passing game, but a solid RB2 is definitely in the mix. 

 

3. The TE who leads the league in receptions and is 2nd in targets is none other than… Jake Ferguson (TE-Dal). However, he is 9th in receiving yards and has yet to catch a TD.  I do see positive progression from him in the TD department—though he did not score a TD in 14 games in 2024, but he has not had a reception longer than 27 yards since 2023.  He has the look of a TE who is going to average about 7-8 yards per reception. In other words, I see a steady floor but not much ceiling here. 

 

4. After two games, the pass catcher who has generated the higher Raw PFF Separation Grade, courtesy of Juday Fortgang @throwthedamball, is Matthew Golden (WR-GB).  He has 2 receptions on 4 targets for 15 receiving yards after two games.  Not ideal.  However, the talent seems there, according to the data.  My colleague also seems to like Golden in Week 03. In addition, not only will Green Bay be without Jayden Reed (WR) for the foreseeable future, the leading target leader on the team, Tucker Kraft (TE) is very questionable. Golden may get his chance against a Cleveland defense that should be able to limit Green Bay’s rushing attack, thus forcing it to throw. 

UPDATE:  Kraft looks like he will play in Week 03, so that gives me a bit more pause with Golden.  Without Kraft, I would consider rolling Golden out there, but with Kraft, I may need to see it 1st before I starting him in the future. 

 

5. The TE with the highest Average Separation Score (ASS), courtesy of @FantasyPtsData, is Travis Kelce (TE-KC).  Despite the recent drops, he has looked good.

 

Other thoughts include the following: 

 

6. My biggest takeaways from TNF’s Miami-Buffalo game are as follows:  Sometimes, Buffalo simply does not need to pass a lot to win.  No WR has reached 50 receiving yards in the last two games.  Josh Allen (QB-Buf) has not thrown for 148 passing yards and 213 passing yards the last two weeks.  He also has only 3 total TDs in those two games.  I am still bullish on Allen, but not as much on the WRs he is throwing to.  Sure, Khalil Shakir and Keon Coleman will have their moments, but it is difficult to currently trust them as more than a WR4-WR5.  I have concerns with this Tua Tagovailoa (QB-Mia) offense, especially for WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.  In 2 of the 3 games thus far, Miami was unable to generate 150 passing yards.  That is concerning.  Miami gets a matchup with the Jets in Week 4.  If the passing issues continue, I may be getting out of the Miami offense business, aside from De’von Achane (RB).

 

7. I will admit it when I am wrong, and it looks like I was not high enough on Zay Flowers (WR-Bal) and Rome Odunze (WR-Chi).  In both players, it was not that I doubted the talent but rather doubted the opportunities in their offenses.  Flowers case involved him becoming the #1 option in Baltimore’s passing attack—he has almost a 42% target share, and from that, he has 218 receiving yards and 1 TD.  The side note to this is its impact on Mark Andrews (TE-Bal).  According to the data @FantasyPtsData, Andrews still generates separation.  He is just not seeing the targets he once did, and this passing offense simply may not be able to consistently produce more than one high end pass catcher.  As for Odunze, he currently has as many targets  on the season (20) as Puka Nacua (WR-LAR).  When one is tied in targets with Nacua, you are doing something.  He has a 30% target share, and has almost twice the targets (20) as his teammate, J. Moore (11). Odunze has not only seen the targets, but he has capitalized, with 13 receptions for 165 yards and 3 TDs.  It looks like both are approaching WR1 conversation.

 

8. Staying with Chicago, D’Andre Swift (RB-Chi) looks truly questionable for the game against Dallas.  This game has the 2nd highest O/U of Week 03.  I would be very interested to see how Kyle Monangai (RB-Chi) fares if Swift is held out.  The 7th round rookie already seems to have a firm grasp as the back-up, so this could be an opportunity.

 

9.  With Xavier Worthy (WR-KC) already ruled out for KC’s game against the G-men, Tyquon Thornton (WR-KC) is Hail Mary play, as he should find at least one long reception.  The bigger interest for me is how much the offense deploys 4th round rookie, Jalen Royals (WR-KC), who is expected to make his debut after sitting out the 1st two games with knee tendinitis.  He has a skill set somewhat similar to Rashee Rice (WR-KC), which makes him quite intriguing.

 

10. And.., I wonder if the recently fired archaeologist is okay.  Sadly, I fear his career is in ruins.