Final FronTiers–RBs

By Winsto (08/25/2023) (UPDATED 08/30/2023 regarding Josh Jacobs and Jonathan Taylor))

Running Backs! They are the foundation of a good fantasy football team, and a reliable work-horse running back has become harder and harder to find. Some would suggest going with a zero running back strategy, in which you basically ignore the position until later rounds while going after elite players at other positions. With this strategy, you no longer need to “reach” for a running back while an elite player at another position is still available. Honestly, I am not a fan of the zero running back strategy. Simply put, the upper to mid-level tier running backs are more consistent than all but the very elite wide receivers. You want consistency with your weekly line-up, allowing yourself the chance to win week in and week out. As for PPR scoring, I have never been a fan. That said, running backs who catch the ball do get those additional yards compared to running backs who typically do not have many receptions. I also believe there is no such thing as having too many running backs. I also believe that you try your best to get the few remaining 3 down workhorse running backs, and you hold onto them with a Kung-fu grip until the end of time or, at the very least, until the end of the season.  With all of that said, let us dive in!

Tier 1–the proven elite (1-5)

  • Austin Ekeler, LAC
  • Christian McCaffrey, Car
  • Saquon Barkley, NYG
  • Derrick Henry, Ten
  • Nick Chubb, Cle

 

Aside from Henry, these guys are going to typically be on the field for all three downs.  I am going Ekeler over McCaffrey only because I “think” San Francisco has more capable back-ups who will get playing time.  Barkley should benefit from a seemingly improved offense this season.  Henry is Henry, though he may not quite be the workhorse that he was, as Tyjae Spears (more on him later) may cut into his playing time, particularly on 3rd downs.  Chubb is simply amazing, averaging over 5 yards a carry for his career.

 

Tier 2—the elite with questions (6-9)

  • Bijan Robinson, Atl
  • Tony Pollard, Dal
  • Josh Jacobs, LV
  • Jonathan Taylor, Ind

 

Robinson, by all accounts, is the real deal.  Pollard looks to be the real deal as well, averaging over 5 yards a carry himself for his career, and there is no Ezekiel Elliott to vulture touchdowns this season.   Jacobs has signed and returned to Las Vegas, but he missed training camp and may take a few games to get to full speed.

 

Tier 3–the workhorses??? (10-14)

  • Dameon Pierce, Hou
  • Najee Harris, Pit
  • Joe Mixon, Cin
  • Rhamondre Stevenson, NE
  • Travis Etienne, Jax

 

These players should benefit from volume, but there are slight concerns with each. Pierce’s role should remain the same as last year, but he does face stronger back-up competition that may lighten his workload.  Harris has not averaged 4 yards per carry in a season.  Mixon tends to be removed randomly in crucial situations, particularly 3rd downs or short yardage. However, that may change now that Samaje Perine is in Denver.  Stevenson could lose some goal line work to Elliot, but I am not sure it will be as much as some experts think.  On the other hand, I can envision Etienne losing short yardage work, but he should still be a top 15 back.

 

Tier 4–the questions begin (15-23)

  • Isiah Pacheco, KC
  • Jahmyr Gibbs, Det
  • Aaron Jones, GB
  • Kenneth Walker III, Sea
  • Breece Hall, NYJ
  • James Cook, Buf
  • James Conner, Ari
  • Alvin Kamara, NO
  • Javonte Williams, Den

 

Pacheco took off in the second half of last season, but he was usually replaced in 3rd down/passing down duties by Jerick McKinnon.  McKinnon is back with the team this season.  The possibilities with Gibbs in Detroit are tremendous, but we said the same thing last year with D’Andre Swift in Detroit.  Aaron Jones is solid, but A. J. Dillon isn’t going anywhere.  Walker and Hall enthusiasts cannot be happy with their respective teams’ running back additions this offseason.  I would stress patience with Hall, as he is one who should get better as the season progresses.  James Cook looks poised for a big year, but the potential loss of short-yardage to either another running back or his quarterback may limit his ceiling. Conner is steady, but Arizona’s offense will not be.  I could be undervaluing Kamara, here, but his multi-game suspension cannot be ignored.  Samaje Perine will be a thorn in J. Williams’s side—ask any Kenny Mixon owner from the past, but Williams is expected to be the main back in the split.

 

Tier 5–the questions continue (24-29)

  • Jonathan Taylor, Ind
  • Cam Akers, LAR
  • Alexander Mattison, Min
  • J. K. Dobbins, Bal
  • Khalil Herbert, Chi
  • Miles Sanders, Car
  • Rachaad White, TB

 

I have serious questions about every single player in this tier, which is why I usually do not walk away from drafts with any of them.  Not only is Taylor going to miss the first 4 games (at least), but he is not entirely healthy.  In addition, Anthony Richardson my be a bit of a vulture in the red zone.  Akers was solid down the stretch last year, and I may have him too low.  I just do not trust him enough to move him to a higher tier.  Is Mattison actually good enough to hold off his back-ups from playing time?  Mattison has not averaged 4 or more yards a carry the past two seasons.  I think Dobbins is solid, but Baltimore’s coaching staff has used a committee approach for several years, now.  Herbert and Sanders have shown to be solid runners, but their lack of 3rd down ability has left the door open for others.  White may face stiffer competition from his back-ups than expected, and how good do we really think Tampa Bay’s offense is going to be this season?

 

Tier 6-the talented who will get work (30-41)

  • Dalvin Cook, NYJ
  • A. J. Dillon, GB
  • Zach Charbonnet, Sea
  • Brian Robinson, Was
  • Cordarrelle Patterson, Atl
  • Samaje Perine, Den
  • Jerick McKinnon, KC
  • Antonio Gibson, Was
  • Jaylen Warren, Pit
  • Tank Bigsby, Jax
  • Tyjae Spears, Ten
  • Gus Edwards, Bal

 

I may be too low on a few of these guys (especially Cook, Dillon and Charbonnet), but the amount of playing time is not certain.  I do not necessarily trust the Robinson/Gibson duo.  Patterson, Perine, McKinnon, Warren, Bigsby, and Spears have shown enough, either in previous seasons or the preseason, that they should factor into the regular season.  Edwards is a favorite among his coaches.

 

Tier 7–the Philly/Miami quagmire (42-47)

  • Rashaad Penny, Phi
  • Jeff Wilson, Jr., Mia
  • Raheem Mostert, Mia
  • De’Von Achane, Mia
  • Kenneth Gainwell, Phi
  • D’Andre Swift, Phi

 

Honestly, good luck!  I have them ranked the order I would approach them, but this seems like such a headache that I am not sure any are worth the risk until the very end of drafts.

 

Tier 8–the Touchdown or Bust (48-51)

  • David Montgomery, Det
  • Jamaal Williams, NO
  • Damien Harris, Buf
  • Ezekial Elliot, NE

 

These are guys who could prove useful in a pinch, but the floor for each week is very low.

 

Tier 9–the back-ups/lottery tickets (52-71)

  • Roschon Johnson, Chi
  • Chris Rodriguez Jr., Was
  • Zamir White, LV
  • Rico Dowdle, Dal
  • Tyler Allgeier, Atl
  • Kendre Miller, NO
  • Ty Chandler, Min
  • Keaontay Ingram, Ari
  • Deuce Vaughn, Dal
  • Zach Moss, Ind
  • Joshua Kelley, LAC
  • Elijah Mitchell, SF
  • Kyren Williams, LAC
  • Evan Hull, Ind
  • Sean Tucker, TB
  • D’Onte Foreman, Chi
  • Chuba Hubbard, Car
  • Jordan Mason, SF
  • Devin Singletary, Hou
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC

 

At this point, if you are still looking here, then you are probably in a deep league or share my motto–“there is no such thing as too many running backs.”

Some of these names could be special by the end of the season, whether because of talent or opportunity.  Johnson, Rodriquez, Miller, Vaughn, Hull, and Mason seem to have some talent, but would also need several things to happen for them to step into the fantasy spotlight.

Up next, Wide Receivers….