By Winsto (09/27/2025)
Abbreviated this week due to time constraints.
I wonder if we can have some more fun with stats.
- The current leader of the 2025 NFL season rushing success rate (gains of at least 40% of yards required on 1st down, 60% of yards required on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd or 4th down—courtesy of pro-football-reference.com) is Jacory Croskey-Merritt (RB-Was) at 68.2%. I mentioned him last week, thinking Week 03 could be a coming out party for him. Of course, Chris Rodriguez Jr., (and I suspect OC Cliff Klingsbury) spoiled it. Still, JCM saw the most snaps, with 40%. I would expect that to continue to climb.
- And as we all predicted, Javante Williams (RB-Dal) is 2nd in rushing success rate at 67.4%. He has never had a full season above 46.8%. He has been a fantasy star for many who believed. It is curious, however, that Mile Sanders (RB-Dal) has the same number of Red Zone looks (7) as Williams, and they have been fairly equal in each game. I wonder if that will continue. If Williams can take control of the red zone touches, he could even finish higher than he currently is placing.
- Just to wrap up the rushing success rate, Isiah Pacheco (RB-KC) is actually 7th in the league with 60%. His 3.7 YPC, however, is not ideal. I expect some success against Baltimore in Week 04, though getting into the endzone is problematic. Kareem Hunt (RB-KC) will have a better chance at a TD. Brashard Smith (RB-KC) is going to be fantasy relevant here pretty soon UNLESS KC decides to trade a late round draft pick for a RB on the last year of his deal who is unlikely to be resigned by his team, a RB like… Breece Hall (RB-NYJ)
- How good could Chris Olave (WR-NO) be if he could occasionally score a TD? He currently leads the league in targets (37) and 3rd in receptions (23). Also working against him is the fact that his YPR (7.2) is a career low, as his career average YPR is 12.8. Something tells me the 7.2 will improve, getting closer to his average. Until then, he is a solid PPR play.
Other thoughts include the following:
- My biggest takeaways from TNF’s Seattle-Arizona game are as follows: Maybe we should readjust our expectations of Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR-Ari). I do not see the separation ability to be a top tier fantasy wide receiver. Despite being very hyped coming out of college and despite his name, he is more of a WR2-3 in fantasy. He can still win one-on-ones and has strong hands, which makes him still be able to finish as a top 20 WR. I don’t, however, see a path to top 10 WR status. Trey Benson (RB-Ari) is going to be frustrated by the Emari Demercado (RB-Ari). It does seem like Demercado has the 3rd down/passing role; thus Benson will suffer if Arizona falls behind, which is what happened Thursday. Thus, Benson may be looking at a ceiling of a RB2, but not a RB1. Kenneth Walker III (RB-Sea) and Zach Charbonnet (RB-Sea) will continue to frustrate each other’s fantasy success as long as they both are healthy.
- Xavier Worthy (WR-KC) is expected to play in Week 04. Be careful, as he may be on a pitch count and may be deployed more as a decoy. There is risk
- Bucky Irving (RB-TB) is averaging 1 YPC. I am not concerned. He is actually breaking tackles at a higher rate this season than last. And, OT Tristan Wirfs is expected to return this week, which should help tremendously.
- Does Tre Tucker (WR-LV) give us an encore, or does he fall flat? He has seen at least 8 targets the past two games. I think there may be something here.
- I am not going to be chasing the ghost of 2020 Darren Waller (TE-Mia) in 2025. Waller is expected to make his return this week. I would rather take a flyer on Isaiah Likely (TE-Bal), Oronde Gadsden II (TE-LAC), or eventually Elijah Arroyo (TE-Sea).
- And.., I wonder when a dad joke becomes a dad joke. I guess it is during the delivery that it becomes apparent.